Can we predict the future?
How prediction markets are making humanity smarter, with Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour. Plus, what we’re gifting this holiday season.
IN THIS EDITION
What prediction markets mean for the future of finance and forecasting, with Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour
70+ gift ideas for crypto and non-crypto friends and family alike
New moves in consumer DeFi and other updates from Cash App, Fidelity, and FinCEN
PREDICTION MARKETS
Pricing the future: A conversation with Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour
Kalshi Cofounder and CEO Tarek Mansour joins host Robert Hackett for a conversation about how prediction markets are making it possible to trade directly on real-world events — from elections to inflation — and what this means for the future of finance and forecasting.
Tarek explains why prediction markets aren’t gambling, how regulation has been central to Kalshi’s success, and why the company is embracing crypto and stablecoins as key components of its international strategy. He also discusses lessons learned about policy, product design, and staying compliant while innovating at the frontier.
This episode kicks off a special series of interviews recorded live at our recent Founders Summit. Subscribe to web3 with a16z crypto for more conversations with founders and builders shaping the decentralized future.
Key moments:
00:00 – What are prediction markets, and why now?
01:20 – Why crypto fits into Kalshi’s long-term strategy
10:19 – Lessons from FTX, and why compliance is a moat
11:33 – How Kalshi monitors markets and works to prevent manipulation
17:24 – The hidden advantage of being regulated
18:20 – Lightning round: worst advice, productivity habits, and more
21:43 – The smallest hill Tarek will die on: No kombucha
RETAIL INVESTMENTS
What we’re gifting this holiday season
Thanksgiving is approaching here in the U.S., which means it’s the perfect time to scour seasonal sales and kickstart your holiday shopping.
Whether you’re looking to find something unexpected for the person in your life who seems to have everything or reward yourself with something special, our annual gift guide offers 70+ ideas handpicked by the a16z crypto team, from our favorite tech to self-care staples.
There’s a lot here, ranging in price and with options for all ages. We’ve included gifts everyone will appreciate (AirPods), aesthetic picks for the hard-to-please (wooden puzzles), and gadgets we didn’t know we needed (a peanut butter stirrer, anyone?).
Here’s what else members of our team are recommending…
A safe (non-smart) tablet for storing seed phrases
An all-in-one kit for conquering jet lag
An interesting take on a classic dress shirt
A user-friendly, entry-level 3D printer
A delightful, programmable message board
A portable smart TV to roll around your home
A party game to play with the whole family
See all of our recommendations here
NEWS AND UPDATES
FinCEN (U.S. Treasury’s Financial Crimes Enforcement Network) has issued a request for comments on “Innovative methods to detect illicit activity involving digital assets.” a16z crypto recently submitted its response — more on those recommendations here — observing that decentralized digital identity, built with privacy-preserving cryptography, can both strengthen national security and protect civil liberties.
Aave Labs, the company behind decentralized lending protocol Aave, is launching a consumer DeFi app on the Apple App Store that runs on stablecoins and the Aave protocol. The company’s announcement comes less than a month after its acquisition of the consumer-focused stablecoin fintech Stable Finance.
Cash App recently rolled out a crypto update enabling millions of users to spend bitcoin at local businesses and send and receive stablecoin payments. These new features build on Square’s earlier launch of bitcoin payments and conversions, now allowing customers to transfer stablecoins and spend U.S. dollars as bitcoin via the Lightning Network. It’s a uniquely bitcoin-forward approach to integrating stablecoin payment rails, relative to similar moves from PayPal, Stripe, Visa, and many others: “We believe that bitcoin is the future of the financial ecosystem, but to truly become everyday money, it needs to be more flexible and easier to use,” says Miles Suter, Bitcoin product lead at Cash App parent company Block.
MATCHMAKING IDEAS
LLM bots may now fully mimic human survey takers. New research from Dartmouth College shows how AI can convincingly impersonate human survey respondents, passing nearly all quality checks and even shifting national poll results. The study’s “synthetic respondent” passed 99.8% of detection tests and could mimic demographic traits, making its data indistinguishable from real humans. The researchers observed that this vulnerability threatens not only election polling but also any science that relies on survey data. This creates an opportunity for blockchain technologies like World to verify human-ness for meaningful — not bot-ridden — survey results.
AROUND THE WEB
More on arcade tokens (in Cointelegraph):
Some of the benefits of using arcade tokens include price stability and usability, which make it easy for users to understand what they’re spending, simplify accounting, and simplify tokenomics for issuers.
However, the report outlines that not every project needs to use them, as they lack utility in speculative environments or when a network or platform already has a well-established token and ecosystem.
— a16z crypto editorial team
You’re receiving this newsletter because you signed up for it on our websites, at an event, or elsewhere (you can opt out any time using the ‘unsubscribe’ link below). This newsletter is provided for informational purposes only, and should NOT be relied upon as legal, business, investment, or tax advice. This newsletter may link to other websites or other information obtained from third-party sources — a16z has not independently verified nor makes any representations about the current or enduring accuracy of such information. Furthermore, the content is not directed at nor intended for use by any investors or prospective investors in any a16z funds. Please see a16z.com/disclosures for additional important details, including link to list of investments.